Is the Philippines preparing to support Ukraine in its fight to repel Russia’s February 2022 invasion?
Two years after Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation,” Russia has occupied about 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory.
Russia has been supporting the move two of Ukraine’s eastern republics — Donetsk and Luhansk — to break away when the Donbas conflict erupted in 2014.
The United States and some European states, members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), rushed to Ukraine’s help, but Kyiv needed more support outside the TransAtlantic alliance.
In June, Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zekenskyy attended the annual Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore to drum up support for Ukraine’s war against Russia.
Among Southeast Asia states, Singapore has been Ukraine’s biggest supporter, imposing some sanctions on Russia to support the US and Western European actions.
Exploiting anti-China sentiments among some Southeast Asian states, Zelenskyy wanted to meet with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr in Singapore.
He even pursued Marcos in Manila, making a surprise visit and announcing a plan to open an embassy to deepen and broaden ties between the two countries.
Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo was lukewarm to the embassy opening proposal as he wanted to keep Manila’s neutrality in the conflict, which could damage its reputation in the international community.
Opening an embassy in Manila while the war raged in Eastern Europe will also have profound implications.
For one, it could be seen as an implicit move to join an anti-Russian coalition led by the United States, a close ally and former colonial ruler.
Manalo would rather wait for the conflict to end before discussing Kyiv’s embassy plan. Manila is not in a rush as political and trade relations with Kyiv are low.
The trade volume with Ukraine has dropped 27 times in the last five years from US$277.2 million in 2019 to only US$10.2 million last year.
Ukraine is one of the world’s top wheat producers, but the Philippines imports the grain from Canada and Australia.
Even before the 2022 conflict, trade turnover had declined by over 200 percent.
People-to-people relations were also insignificant. Only about 300 Filipinos, including those married to locals, lived or worked in Ukraine.
Bilateral relations were served best by embassies outside Manila and Kyiv. The Philippine mission in Poland and Ukraine’s embassy in Malaysia have been doing their jobs.
Therefore, additional diplomatic missions in Manila and Kyiv are seen as illogical and unreasonable. It could be an added cost for the Philippines.
There could also be some national security concerns if Kyiv starts recruitment of foreign mercenaries, not even Filipinos, in Manila to join the conflict in Ukraine.
In the past, some soldiers and police officers moonlighted as US security personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan, taking some leaves of absence for high-paying jobs as civilian guards in US installations.
It was also a known fact that in Israel, some Filipinos had been recruited into the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to fight against Hamas and Hezbollah militants in Gaza and Lebanon. It is likely that the same thing could happen in the case of Ukraine.
There are also some curious cases in Africa after Ukraine was allowed to open diplomatic missions.
Some security analysts found a link between Kyiv’s opening of embassies and rising instability in some African countries as foreign mercenaries were actively recruited to fight in Ukraine.
In Bamako, for instance, Ukrainian-supported militants attacked some Mali servicemen and Russian advisers in July, forcing the West African state to cut ties with Kyiv.
There are risks that if Kyiv is allowed to open an embassy in Manila, like in Africa, it could carry out operations against Russian and Chinese interests.
There were reports some Filipino companies have started exporting non-lethal materials to Ukraine through companies in Germany.
Manila would also risk damaging its ties with Moscow, which started to improve under former leader Rodrigo Duterte.
Washington has been pressuring Manila to support Kyiv, using its support for the West Philippine Sea situation as a quid pro quo.
Ukraine needed more international support, and the US has been rallying its allies to help Kyiv against Moscow.
President Ferdinand Marcos should remember that it would not benefit the country if it rushed to open a diplomatic mission in Kyiv and allowed Ukraine to open an embassy in Manila. It should wait until the war is over.
Marcos should stick to his policy of “friends to all and enemy to none” when considering Zelenskyy’s proposal to open an embassy while the conflict drags.
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