The administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has submitted to Congress a proposed P419-billion defense sector budget for 2025, a 50.8% increase from last year’s spending program.
However, the defense and military establishments, mandated to protect the Republic’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, will get over P250 billion.
About P50 billion was allocated to fund the military’s 15-year modernization program, which started in 2013 under the administration of the late President Benigno Aquino III.
In short, the military is on the last leg of the three-phased, five-year modernization program until 2028.
The President’s P419-billion defense sector budget proposal included P31.3 billion for the Coast Guard and P204 billion for the Philippine National Police.
The Philippine Coast Guard will acquire a hospital ship for P386 million and spend P37 million pesos on a radar system for communication and a maritime navigation system.
For the PNP, P2 billion will be allocated to acquire firepower, mobility, and communications assets, and P450 million for constructing 37 police stations nationwide.
On the surface, the Marcos government will prioritize the defense sector due to a 50.8% increase in the budget allocation for 2025.
However, upon scrutiny, about 60% of the budget will still go to personnel services or to the salaries and allowances of the members of the military, police, and Coast Guard.
About 30 percent will be allocated to operating and maintenance costs and 10 percent to capital outlay.
The Marcos administration said it has increased by P10 billion the military’s modernization budget for 2025, but in reality the funds will just go to annual amortization for planes, ships, and other equipment that were acquired under the administrations of Aquino and Rodrigo Duterte.
Every time the government signs a deal to acquire a weapons system, it only provides a 15% downpayment and the rest is divided into annual amortizations subject to the agreed contract.
Thus, the P50-billion fund for military modernization is not enough to support the ambitious P1.9-trillion capability upgrade plan approved by Marcos in December 2023.
It means spending over P100 billion on the military modernization budget in the next 10 years.
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr had proposed to increase defense spending by at least 2% of the country’s GDP to quickly modernize the military and be at par with other Southeast Asian neighbors.
Among the five bigger Southeast Asian states — Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Singapore — the Philippines is the weakest militarily.
It has no conventional submarines and multi-role fighters.
Tiny Singapore, which has the highest defense budget in the region, spends at least 8% of its GDP on defense.
It has submarines and has been acquiring F-35A/B next-generation multi-role fighters, the only Southeast Asian country with such capability.
Indonesia and Malaysia have been investing in armed drones from Turkey to make up for their older models of multi-role fighters, which included Russian Sukhois.
Marcos was only paying lip service when he announced in his 52-page budget message to Congress that he had asked for a 50.8% increase in the defense sector budget for 2025.
It is difficult when the defense sector is competing with education, health, agriculture, and social welfare for funds in the P6.3-trillion budget proposal next year.
Education continued to receive the highest allocation with nearly P1 trillion.
On July 30, the United States announced $500 million in military aid under the foreign military financing program of the US State Department.
Teodoro said the funds would be part of the Philippine Security Sector Assistance Roadmap (P-SSAR) to help modernize the military.
The $500 million assistance will be the largest single-year allocation since the US military bases were closed in 1992.
Both US State Secretary Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the military aid is a “once-in-a-generation” investment to strengthen the alliance.
The funds are on top of the $128 million investments in seven EDCA locations nationwide.
Again, it appeared the military aid is substantial but if the Philippines will acquire weapons systems from the United States, $500 million will not be enough.
For instance, the US has offered to sell 12 F-16 multi-role fighters for $2.4 billion in 2021.
Thus, taking inflation into consideration, $500 million will not be enough to acquire three F-16s.
It means the Philippines can afford to acquire surveillance drones, small arms, and possibly High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) from the funds allocated by the US.
It can only acquire refurbished planes and ships to boost its maritime security capability.
The Philippines has to increase its defense spending to a modest 2% of its GDP to build up a minimum credible defense capability and play catch up with the rest of its Southeast Asian neighbors.
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