The Philippines has been drawing valuable lessons from conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the recent India-Pakistan border disputes.
It has been preparing to deal with attacks from drones and missiles, as seen in Ukraine, the Red Sea, and Kashmir.
The Philippines has to prepare for massive amphibious operations in disputed features in the South China Sea.
This can be a likely scenario given Washington’s prediction that Beijing will use force to unify with Taipei by 2027.
Manila must train, equip, and prepare for future conflicts, which would be fought with aerial, surface, and underwater drones and with conventional and tactical missile strikes.
In the recently concluded 19-day joint and combined “Balikatan” exercises, the Philippines had a taste of responding to tactical drone attacks when the United States demonstrated a brand new weapons system – the Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS).
First fielded in December 2024, the US Marines brought half a dozen Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTVs) mounted with two surface-to-air FIM-92 Stinger missiles to counter drones, missiles, fast-moving fighters, and attack helicopters.
US and Philippine Marines test-fired MADIS in a drill at a naval base in San Antonio, Zambales, during the Balikatan exercises, the second time the anti-drone system was tested. The first time was in Hawaii in January this year.
The MADIS will remain in the Philippines for the next series of coastal defense drills between the US and Philippine Marines, the Kamandag.
As part of the coastal defense drills, the US Marines also deployed a new Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS), an anti-ship system capable of hitting targets about 100 miles away.
The two brand-new US weapons systems will boost the Philippines’ deterrence capability as Chinese vessels patrol waters around the disputed Bajo de Masinloc, west of Zambales.
These conventional war games were consistent with Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC), which sought to strengthen the country’s anti-access and area denial (A2AD) capability.
The large-scale conventional military drills – the Army-centric “Salaknib,” the Marine-led “Kamandag,” and the joint and combined “Balikatan” – were evolving into the full battle scenario to test the operational readiness of two allies in responding to a rapidly changing security environment.
Before conventional exercises, the focus was on small-unit scenarios, amphibious landings, anti-terrorism, and humanitarian operations.
But, as soon as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came to power, he wanted the Armed Forces to focus on territorial defense and abandon its counter-insurgency role.
Thus, in late 2022, fighting the Maoist-led New People’s Army has been left to the combat-trained members of the 220,000-strong Philippine National Police (PNP).
In 2023, Marcos also prepared a P1.1-trillion military modernization plan to equip and upgrade minimum defense capabilities to catch up with Southeast Asian neighbors.
With the help of its long-time security partner and former colonial master, the United States, a five-year Philippine Security Sector Assistance Roadmap was finalized a year ago, a day before the historic 2 + 2 ministerial dialogue in Washington.
Before ending his term in 2024, former US President Joe Biden granted the Philippines $500 million in financial assistance under the US State Department’s foreign military sales (FMS) program.
The amount was separate from the regular $40 million annual FMS program and the $100 million promised by Washington after Manila cancelled its medium-lift helicopter deal with Russia.
Biden also promised another $129 million to upgrade military facilities, including piers and airfields, in nine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites.
A bipartisan group of US lawmakers also proposed a $2.5-billion financial package under the Philippine Enhancement Resilience Act (PERA), a five-year program to develop the defense capabilities of the Philippines.
Under the Trump administration, the US offered 20 brand-new F-16 multirole fighters in a commercial deal to increase the Philippines’s deterrence capability.
The United States wanted the Philippines to develop a more credible deterrence capability and join like-minded countries to keep the status quo in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Philippines was seen as the weakest link in countering China’s influence in the region.
While President Donald Trump decided to cut or withhold military, economic, and social assistance to its allies and partners, the US kept the intended military-related aid to the Philippines.
The Philippines has also widened its alliances by entering into status of forces agreements with Australia, Japan, and New Zealand. Negotiations had also started for similar arrangements with Canada, France, Germany, and Poland.
The trainings, security cooperation, and continued upgrade of its deterrence capabilities have built confidence and earned respect from like-minded countries.
The Philippines is no longer the weakest state in the region, operating World War II-vintage vessels and Vietnam-era aircraft.
But, it is still a long way to go before the Philippines could match its Southeast Asian peers, like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Singapore is more of an aspiration, while China, Japan, and South Korea are out of the country’s league.
What is important is that the Philippines develops a minimum credible defense posture. No outside power will try to bully the Philippines. If it tries, it may end up with a bloodied nose.
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