Donald Trump’s takeover of the White House in late January 2025 could change the world’s geopolitical landscape with the possible end of the conflict in Eastern Europe.
The Middle East would still be unpredictable and tensions in the Indo-Pacific region would likely persist as China’s military continues to expand, hoping to gain parity with the United States.
Under President Joe Biden, the United States poured billions of dollars into sustaining Ukraine’s resistance to a Russian invasion, which had occupied roughly 20 percent of its western territory.
Biden has supplied Kyiv with long-range rockets and artillery systems, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to hit targets deep into Russian territory.
But that could change in 2025. Trump is not interested in sustaining the conflict and plans to prioritize strengthening America’s economy and military to deter global threats.
The war in Ukraine has drained the US and its allies of munitions, including rockets, missiles, and artillery shells, making the West more vulnerable to its traditional rivals, like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
The war has cost the US billions of dollars with no end in sight to the conflict and the possibility of more American lives lost in the unnecessary war.
Trump may end the war by negotiating a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Some pro-Russian people in Trump’s Cabinet would want to end the conflict and end as well Washington’s funding of the war.
Trump also wants to see peace and stability in the Middle East after Hamas militants attacked Israel in October 2023. The conflict with Hamas and later with the Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon had widened into a regional conflict with Iran and Yemen joining the fray.
Islamist militants deposed long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad, creating more uncertainty in the region.
Radical Arabs and Islamist militants wanted the destruction of the Jewish state but the United States and the United Kingdom have been vital in the defense of Israel.
There had been peace plans in the region with a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah militants, but nothing is certain in 2025.
In the Indo-Pacific region, China’s coercive activities in the East and South China Sea would likely persist as it laid claim on disputed features in both areas.
China has submitted baselines to formally claim sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal, only 120 nautical miles west of Zambales coast, still within the Philippines’ 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
The Philippines opposed the claim, describing China’s actions as illegal, excessive, and a threat to regional peace and stability.
In 2025, China is expected to increase its presence around Scarborough Shoal, locally known as Bajo de Masinloc, and assert its sovereignty. It could lead to more frequent and increased levels of harassment around Bajo de Masinloc.
China’s Coast Guard vessels sprayed with water cannon the boats and law enforcement vessels of the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) around Bajo de Masinloc.
For the first time, a Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA-N) got involved in coercive activities when a frigate blocked a Philippine Coast Guard vessel near the uninhabited feature.
China was also asserting sovereignty in Sabina Shoal, or Escoda Shoal, near the Second Thomas Shoal or Ayungin Shoal in another part of the West Philippine Sea.
Dozens of Coast Guard and militia vessels were deployed around the low-tide elevation shoal. In this strategic area, Philippine Coast Guard vessels await resupply boats before proceeding to Ayungin Shoal.
However, things have been improving around Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal, as China did not harass the supply vessels three times when it sent fuel, food, freshwater, and other supplies to BRP Sierra Madre.
The July agreement between Manila and Beijing should serve as a model for other features in the West Philippine Sea.
When the Philippines and China hold the next bilateral consultative meeting next year, the two sides should work on peaceful deals to reduce tension and avoid violence similar to the June 17 incident.
A Philippine Navy sailor lost a finger during an attack on two rigid-hulled rubber boats near BRP Sierra Madre.
Violence has no place in the West Philippine Sea. The Philippines and China can agree to disagree but it should not lead to the use of force or threat of the use of force.
China must also respect the “red line” imposed by the Philippines to prevent an escalation that could lead to a conflict that may drag other countries.
China should not build structures on Scarborough Shoal. It should not do reclamation and convert the shoal into an artificial island.
A Chinese military installation in Scarborough Shoal would be a direct security threat to the interests of the Philippines and the United States in the region. It would be worse than a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
In 2025, let’s hope China will not cross that “red line” and maintain good behavior as a responsible member of the international community, avoiding rocking the boat.
Trump is helping calm down the situation. China should cooperate. It could start by agreeing to conclude a legally binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and demilitarizing its artificial islands.
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