The Philippines has sent a Coast Guard vessel and a slow plane to track the movement of China’s largest law enforcement vessel, CCG 5901, which had steamed slowly at about 2 knots some 55 nautical miles west of Zambales.
A Philippine Coast Guard vessel circled CCG 5901, also known as the “monster” Chinese Coast Guard ship, challenging it to move away and leave the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
But, the Chinese vessel ignored the warning, responding that it was on patrol in China’s sovereign waters.
Jonathan Malaya, a senior official at the National Security Council, said the Chinese Coast Guard ship was sailing within the country’s maritime zones to scare local fishermen.
It might be true, but China could be conducting what the United States has long done in disputed waters in the South China Sea: conducting freedom of navigation operations patrols (FONOPs).
There were times when the United States Navy’s Arleigh Burke-guided missile destroyers sailed within 12 nautical miles of territorial waters of Chinese artificial islands in the South China Sea.
When this happened, China sent ships to shadow the US Navy’s destroyer, infuriating Beijing, which sent a strongly worded diplomatic protest to Washington.
Beijing appeared helpless in preventing the US Navy’s FONOPS. A US Coast Guard vessel and a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense (JMSDF) destroyer sometimes joined a US Navy carrier strike force in patrolling the disputed waters.
Both sides have been trying to prevent a potential conflict in the South China Sea. They played a perilous game, which could lead to an accident that could precipitate a war.
As Beijing built a credible anti-access and area denial (A2AD) capability, the US FONOPS have lessened.
Now, it was China’s turn to conduct its own FONOPs version, sending its Navy, Coast Guard, and militia vessels to Southeast Asian states’ maritime zones, encompassing the waters off Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
China claims almost the entire South China Sea, disregarding international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
China is attempting to create a buffer zone in the South China Sea, militarizing artificial islands to keep away the US and its allies from patrolling the strategic waterway where about $3 trillion worth of annual trade passes.
In a way, China was also testing how Southeast Asian states, including the Philippines, would respond to such blatant intrusions into maritime zones.
China has been acting like the United States in the disputed seas. Its warships also sail frequently near Philippine territorial waters.
China’s People Liberation Army-Navy vessels have been sighted around Bajo de Masinloc, Escoda Shoal, and even in Hasa-Hasa Shoal.
One time, a Chinese warship ran aground in Hasa-Hasa Shoal and had to be towed away for repairs.
China could also wear down Southeast Asian states by continuously sending hundreds of vessels into the South China Sea because they lacked assets to match Beijing’s superior numbers.
It’s a tactic that China has been doing for years in Taiwan. Taipei cannot afford to scramble fighters to challenge waves and waves of Chinese aircraft entering its airspace or sending out ships to confront Chinese vessels around the self-ruled island.
Taiwan is in a better position to respond to Chinese provocation. The Philippines has very limited air and naval capability. It has to rely on its allies, like Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United States, to show the flag in the South China Sea.
It will take decades before the Philippines can match the military capabilities of its well-equipped neighbors, like Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.
But at least it can afford to send a Coast Guard vessel to challenge China’s oversized Coast Guard vessel.
By the time Ferdinand Marcos Jr. steps down from power in 2028, the Philippines would be better positioned to patrol its vast maritime zomes and show the flag in disputed areas.
It would have an additional two guided-missile frigates, two missile corvettes, and six offshore patrol vessels in addition to three ex-Cyclone class cutters, three ex-Hamilton cutters, a former South Korean corvette, and three ex-Peacock class patrol boats.
The Philippines can also deploy additional Indian BrahMos shore-to-ship missiles, and the US can deploy more long-range HIMARS and Typhon mid-range capability.
The Philippine Coast Guard will have an additional 97-meter patrol boats to beef up BRP Gabriela Silang, Melchora Aquino, and Teresa Magbanua.
The Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources will also have additional vessels, the Philippines’ militia version.
By then, China may become more cautious and sail farther out on the high seas.
It will think twice before violating the country’s EEZ because more vessels with longer endurance and credible firepower will cause damage.
The Philippines cannot match China’s naval and coast guard power. China has the largest in the world, perhaps greater in number than the United States.
However, the Philippines can improve its deterrence capability with the help of its close allies and like-minded countries in the region.
It will no longer be a pushover with World War II vintage ships.
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