Just weeks away from stepping down from power, US President Joe Biden has upped the ante in the Ukraine war.
Biden has allowed Kyiv to fire US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets deep into Russia’s Bryansk region, destroying an ammunition warehouse.
Ukraine claimed the Bryansk region was supplying munitions to Russian forces fighting in the neighboring Kursk region.
Subsequently, Ukraine fired British-made “Storm Shadow” missiles deep into Russia’s territory.
The ATACMS, developed by Lockheed Martin, have nearly double the striking distance — up to 300 kilometers — of most of the weapons in Ukraine’s possession.
They carry a larger payload and have more precise targeting for pinpoint attacks on airfields, ammunition stores, and strategic infrastructure.
The United States has supplied Ukraine with dozens of ATACMS, and they have been used to destroy military targets in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine such as Crimea, but not on Russian soil.
Earlier, the Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) that could reach targets about 80 kilometers away.
There was no explanation why Biden allowed Ukraine to use its ATACMS when Washington had been opposing moves to escalate the conflict, fearing that it could draw the United States and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), like Great Britain, France, and Germany into direct confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia.
The US, Great Britain, and France are also armed with nuclear weapons, raising the danger of a nuclear war in Europe.
Moscow has warned Washington the decision to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow could add “fuel to the fire.”
Indeed, Russia retaliated by firing into Ukraine its new conventional intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBN), the “Oreshnik,” hitting Dnipro.
Analysts say Biden’s decision to authorize the firing of six ATACMS comes in the last days of Biden’s presidency as Donald Trump has said he would soon end the Russia-Ukraine war.
Biden’s actions would make it difficult for Trump to find a solution to de-escalate the situation in Eastern Europe, undermining Washington’s ties with Moscow.
It could also be in reaction to nuclear-armed North Korea’s sending of soldiers to fight for Russia.
However, Biden’s decision could lead to an unpredictable escalation of the conflict.
Potentially, such steps taken by the US and some of its NATO allies can provoke a global nuclear war due to the use of long-range ballistic missiles.
The US and its allies have also crossed a “red line” that Russian leader Vladimir Putin had warned against.
The world has entered a dangerous phase with the use of ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and Oreshnik.
Jose Manuel Romualdez, long-time Philippine ambassador to the United States, was right when he accurately said the missile strikes carried out by Ukraine into Russia did not just
intensify the conflict, it turned into one of unpredictable character.
It could provoke a real nuclear war with more nuclear-armed states – China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Iran – joining the fray.
In a way, the escalating situation in Ukraine would further complicate this part of the world as the US has also started deploying long-range missile systems in the Indo-Pacific region.
Beijing has warned Manila to remove the medium-range capabilities (MRC) deployed in northern Luzon, which has an effective range that could hit China’s coastal cities.
China and US relations, under Donald Trump when he assumes office next year, are starting on the wrong foot as the president-elect has said he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods and those of other BRIC states.
Thus, the increase of the US presence in the Philippines, particularly the deployment of the “Typhoon” missile launcher, would make Manila a legitimate target of Beijing.
Sen. Imee Marcos, head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has raised concern over the presence of the missile launcher in her home province.
She’s worried the Philippines, particularly the Ilocos region, would become the battleground between the US and China.
Her constituents would bear the brunt of a war that the Philippines had nothing to do with but could be dragged into because the US wanted to retain its status as the world’s number one economic and military power.
The US has a bad habit of creating tensions and fighting wars away from its home, then using proxies to defeat its perceived enemies.
Putin’s use of the Oreshnik could be a warning to the US and its Western allies that they have made the world a more dangerous place by risking a regional to a global nuclear war.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. must see the handwriting on the wall and take measures to promote a peace-building agenda.
Marcos must remind the US and its Western allies that it was a mistake to take the first step to raising tension in Eastern Europe by allowing the ATACMS and Storm Shadow to be used against Russian cities.
Marcos should appeal to all states – the US, Russia, and their allies – to avoid escalating the conflict in Ukraine and urge them to avoid turning the conflict into a confrontation of nuclear missile powers.
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