Donald Trump just reclaimed the White House.
What was feared to be a tight race with US Vice President Kamala Harris did not happen as the former US president went on to win the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Trump’s Republican Party also dominated the US senatorial elections, flipping some states held by Democrats.
US domestic policies, including the economy and immigration, would likely be affected by Trump’s return to power.
The world is also eagerly watching changes to Washington’s foreign policy as Trump had an “American first” policy during his first term from 2016 to 2020.
Should the Philippines be concerned about these foreign policy changes? What is the future of Washington’s “ironclad’ support to the Philipines? How would it affect the situation in the West Philippine Sea? Would the US make good on its promise to build more facilities in the EDCA sites?
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said he was confident there would be no changes in the Philippines-United States bilateral security relations or in Washington’s policy toward the West Philippine Sea.
Jose Manuel Romualdez, the Philippines’s long-time ambassador to the United States, shared Teodoro’s optimism.
Even before the US Nov. 5 elections, Romualdez said he got assurances from the Republican Party, including some people close to Trump advisers, that nothing would change in Philippines-US relations.
It would be recalled that Washington’s policy toward the South China Sea became clearer under the first Trump administration.
Former US State Secretary Mike Pompeo had articulated in a 2019 statement that the US would respond to any armed attack on any Philippine ship and aircraft anywhere in the Pacific, including in the South China Sea.
It was a departure from the US’s old policy of strategic ambiguity that gave it more flexibility in case a conflict erupted in disputed waters in the South China Sea.
The old US policy only assured Manila of a response in an incident that happened in the metropolitan area in the Philippines, meaning there was no assurance the US would help if an armed attack occurred in the disputed area.
The 2016 decision from the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague could have changed the US policy.
The court decision did not only nullify China’s illegal nine-dash-line but awarded the Philippines legal rights to explore and exploit the economic resources in the West Philippine Sea under the 1982 United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Before the arbitral ruling, the US was holding an empty basis for challenging China’s claim to the South China Sea.
The US has now reason to pressure Beijing to comply with an international court’s decision. The US could morally and legally take action against China if the latter attacks the former American colony and longtime security ally.
It has all the reasons to respond under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty.
Thus, the 2016 arbitral ruling strengthened the hand of the United States, which was enough reason for the Trump administration to shift its South China Sea stance to more precise terms.
Under Trump’s first term, the Philippines also experienced the transfer of brand-new weapons systems for the first time in maritime domain awareness operations.
After the end of the Second World War and at the height of the Cold War, the Philippines received only second-hand military equipment from the United States.
Several World War II-era minesweepers, destroyer escorts, and landing ship tanks (LSTs) were transferred to the Philippine Navy.
More old vessels were transferred after the end of the Vietnam War in 1975 when South Vietnam Navy vessels escaped and sailed to Subic, a sprawling US Navy base in the Philippines.
The Philippine Air Force also received Vietnam War-era second-hand Bell UH-1H helicopters.
Under Trump, the first ScanEagle surveillance drones were donated to the Philippine Air Force.
Smart and precision bombs were also sold and more brand-new equipment for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) were transferred, including powerful cameras fitted into C-130 aircraft and patrol aircraft.
Filipino diplomats and security officials said they expected the US to support the Armed Forces of the Philippines’s modernization program under the second Trump administration.
Romualdez said there was bipartisan support in the US Congress for the $2.5 billion assistance program under the Philippine Enhance Resiliency Act (PERA) bill, a proposal to provide $500 million in foreign military funding to the Philippines for five years.
The Pentagon has also promised to build more military-use facilities in the nine EDCA sites in the Philippines.
The United States, regardless of who won between Trump and Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 balloting, considers China as a strategic competitor and rival, more than Russia and other countries.
Through its checkbook diplomacy, China’s influence has been expanding, not only in the Indo-Pacific region but elsewhere in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.
It also has the world’s largest fleet of Navy and Coast Guard. It has been developing and deploying medium-range ballistic missiles, forcing Washington and Moscow to abandon a Cold War disarmament deal.
Washington was aware of Beijing’s ambitious plan, a 100-year marathon to overtake the US as the world’s No. 1 economy and military power by 2049.
It could surpass the US economy in a decade. But becoming the world’s top military power would take more years.
Thus, the second Trump administration is expected to continue the US engagement in the Indo-Pacific area.
However, Trump is more transactional than President Joe Biden, so there could be some tweaks in US engagement, particularly with more capable allies, such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, as well as wealthier Taiwan.
The Philippines can expect business as usual.
MANUEL “MANNY” P. MOGATO is Editor-at-Large and opinion writer, writing under the column “In the Trenches.” As Reuters Manila correspondent, he and two other colleagues won the Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting in 2018 for their coverage of the Duterte administration’s war on drugs.
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