New sources of instability have emerged and conflict is on the rebound years after the conclusion of peace negotiations and the creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), according to a new conflict monitoring report.
The Council for Climate and Conflict Action Asia (CCAA), a local peacebuilding organization with a mission to explore the links between conflict and climate risks, found an uptrend in the long view of violence starting in 2021.
“It is apparent that the path to a lasting peace has been obstructed again, bringing renewed suffering, uncertainty, and insecurity especially among women and children, years after the conclusion of peace negotiations and the creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). These cracks are expected to widen further as the first regional elections descend upon the region in 2025,” said the CCAA report, titled “Appeasing Violence, Conjuring Peace: The Conflict Alert 2021-2023 Report.”
CCAA’s analysis revealed complex dynamics that have led to the resurgence of violence, despite the decline in violence after the Marawi siege in 2017, the implementation of martial law, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These include location and dynamics and conflicts related to shadow economy enterprises and identity and land disputes.
“The data reveals that violence is rising fastest in the province where the new BARMM government sits and exercises regional authority. The old and undivided Maguindanao province, including Cotabato City, followed the ten-year conflict trend by registering the biggest number of violent incidents in the past three years, from 2021 to 2023. Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur recorded significant increases since 2021, which was repeated in 2023 together with Sulu,” the triennial report stated.
“The fact that most of the violence is happening at the seat of the regional government speaks volumes about the fragility and weakness of the state and the fractionalization in state building and governance,” it added.
The CCAA report said illicit drugs and guns figured prominently among the shadow economy enterprises and shadow economy-related violence remained high, but identity-related conflict was deadlier.
“The number of deaths from identity-related violence rose significantly to eclipse shadow economy and political violence at the end of 2023. By 2023, identity-related conflict became the major cause of death,” it said.
CCAA said it would be difficult to make claims about development and peace by “conjuring a magical peace that collides with the dull and usual realities of war.”
It called for redundant and autonomous monitoring systems at various levels as well as strong and collaborative responses from the media ahead of the 2025 elections.
The report also proposed mediating violent and longstanding feuds and deterring revenge as early as possible, and called on humanitarian and legal aid groups to prepare for rescue and support.
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